Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Election ballots in Burma
Myanmar's military is conducting a staggered election over the next month.

The nation is holding an election in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".

Jennifer Barnett
Jennifer Barnett

A seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in casino gaming and sports betting, specializing in strategy development.